Elections 2020: Will Trump Win Minnesota? Will the GOP Hold the Senate?

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  • Aug. 22, 2020
  • 3 min read

President

Minnesota Polling: We are now seeing curious polling data coming from Minnesota, but with a consistent trend. In late July, former Vice President Joe Biden was enjoying huge polling leads over President Trump. One survey, from Public Policy Polling (7/22-23; 1,218 MN voters) posted Mr. Biden to a ten-point, 52-42%, advantage. Now, however, the Minnesota race is brandishing much different numbers.

Just before the state’s August 11th primary election, Emerson College conducted a statewide survey (8/8-10; 733 MN likely general election voters) and found Mr. Biden’s lead dropping to only two points, 51-49%, in a poll where respondents were pushed to make a choice between the pair of candidates. Now, the Trafalgar Group, the only pollster to correctly predict Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at the end of the 2016 election, finds the two candidates locked in a dead heat. Their most recent survey (8/15-18; 1,141 MN likely voters) sees the two men battling into a 47-47% tie. Since Hillary Clinton only won here in 2016 with a 1.5 percent margin, Minnesota is a state to watch as the presidential campaign hits its full stride.

Senate

Alaska: As expected, Anchorage surgeon Al Gross easily won this week’s Alaska Democratic primary with 75% of the vote and advances into the general election to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in November.

Arizona: In another sign that the Arizona Senate race is beginning to close, the Republican polling firm OnMessage (8/2-4; 400 AZ likely voters) projects appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) pulling into a tie with retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D), as both recorded 48% preference in their latest study. This is the first poll since late June that did not yield an advantage for Mr. Kelly.

Georgia: Democratic pollster Garin Hart Young Research released a Georgia US Senate survey (8/10-13; 601 GA likely voters) and found Democratic nominee Jon Ossoff holding a 48-46% edge over first-term Sen. David Perdue (R). Around the same time, another Democratic polling firm, Public Policy Polling (8/13-14; 530 GA voters) tested the Georgia electorate and found the candidates tied at 44% apiece. Just before that, media pollster Survey USA (8/6-8; 623 GA likely voters) went into the field and projected Sen. Perdue to be holding a three-point lead, 44-41%. It is evident from these different polls all conducted loosely within the same time frame, that the Georgia regular election Senate campaign is trending toward the toss-up realm.

North Carolina: Democratic US Senate nominee Cal Cunningham, a former state Senator, has been consistently leading in recent polling against first-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R), and the new East Carolina University poll (8/12-13; 1,255 NC registered voters; 879 through Interactive Voice Response systems, and 376 from an online panel) continues the trend. The ECU numbers find Mr. Cunningham holding a 44-40% lead over Sen. Tillis, while the same sample finds President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden tied with 47% apiece in a state where winning is critically important the former man’s national prospects.

Texas: The international pollster YouGov tested the Lone Star State electorate (8/4-13; 846 TX registered voters) and finds both Sen. John Cornyn (R) and President Trump leading their respective Democratic opponents, retired Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar and former Vice President Joe Biden, by seven percentage points. Sen. Cornyn has a 44-37% advantage, while President Trump is up 48-41%.

Wyoming: The Wyoming August 18th primary also provided no surprises as former US Rep. Cynthia Lummis, armed with President Trump’s support, scored a 60% win for the open Republican US Senate nomination over nine opponents and advances into the general election where she becomes an overwhelming favorite to win in November.

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