First, I’ll fess up. My midterms forecast was wrong. Not by a little, but a lot. I expected the GOP to lose the House by a handful of seats. I figured Republicans would retain the Senate though likely drop a couple of seats. Instead, the midterms were a blowout for the GOP. And I’ll say in hindsight, one Republicans earned.
Voters across the nation, in purple, blue, and red states, rejected the Iran war. It was hugely unpopular. Don’t buy the spin now that the war didn’t drive an anti-Trump and anti-GOP vote. Most importantly, among the president’s base, too many voters lodged protest votes, casting ballots for left-wing Democrats – in purple and red states. Such was the disgust.
Secondly, millions of paycheck-to-paycheck voters expected the president and congressional Republicans to focus fully on lowering their daily costs. Gas, groceries, and utilities are busting their budgets. In 2025, the president was having success in fulfilling his mandate. With the war in February of this year, gas and other costs rose. That killed Republican prospects.
Yet, in the aftermath, what are we hearing from some conservatives? “There wasn’t a repudiation,” they claim, “it was massive ballot fraud!” That’s a deep rabbit hole. Go down that, and the GOP is sunk in 2028.
Was there ballot fraud? Certainly. There’s been ballot fraud in every election since 1788. Better and worse at times, but always present. And I’m convinced that the deliberate abuse of mail-in balloting in swing states cost the president his 2020 reelection. But not this time, not with Republicans losing elections in deep red states – unless we want to believe that Republicans who run those states conspired with Democrats. Or that exotic technology infiltrated and changed the results. Please. That’s conspiracy spin on steroids.
If the GOP hopes to recover for the absolutely critical 2028 presidential contest, it has to own up. Mistakes were made. Big mistakes. The president strayed from his mandate. Senate Republicans, led by the odious John Thune, did nothing after passing the tax reconciliation bill. Voters, expecting steak, got tofu. They wanted steak. When they didn’t get it, they rebelled.
The midterm failure is recoverable, that’s the good news. But only if the president drives an agenda focused on reducing costs and other key domestic issues that play well with his base and independents. No more overseas adventures.
It’s a choice. It really is just a choice.