By J Robert Smith
- Oct. 20, 2024
- 6-minute read
Mark Halperin appeared on Tucker Carlson’s X program earlier this week. Halperin is a bona fide journalist and careful political analyst. He’s worth watching. His sources are solid on both sides of the aisle. He’s had access to the Harris and Trump campaigns’ internal polls. Public polls can be unreliable. Nonetheless, there’s agreement: inside and outside, polls indicate a tight contest. Trends look good for Trump, says Halperin, but don’t dismiss a Kamala Harris victory. Halperin cites four reasons why a hugely unqualified woman could be the next president.
You might recall that Halperin scooped his competitors on Joe Biden’s intention to quit his reelection bid. He took flak when there was a lag between his report and Biden’s announcement. But Halperin was proved right. Okay, so Obama, Clinton, Pelosi, and Schumer squeezed Biden out of the race, but no need to fuss about that.
Halprin told Carlson that if Trump wins, the election won’t be close. The same holds for Harris, he believes. That assessment may miss the target. It’s more likely that Harris will win a close contest. Trump doesn’t have that luxury. Why? Because Trump labors under a substantial handicap. He must beat the margin of theft in some combination of battleground states to secure 270 electoral votes.
To beat the cheat, what sort of margin of victory will Trump need in Pennsylvania, for instance? Some observers suggest 3%. I’ll wager it’s more like 4% or 5%. Public polling from swing states haven’t shown Trump with leads in that range – certainly not sustained leads. As of this writing, Real Clear Politics shows Trump ahead in every battleground state but Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, Harris edges Trump by 0.3%. All leads are within the margin of error. Internal polls are said to show similar razor thin differences.
Granted, in 2016 and 2020 Trump under-polled. In fact, his poll numbers are better now than they were in those contests. A lot of voters aren’t comfortable disclosing their intentions to vote for Trump. Trump’s overperformance in consecutive elections is solidly indicates that history is about to repeat. If that happens, Trump should receive the numbers needed to win. A critical question, though, is how audacious are Democrats willing to be to overcome Trump if his tallies push his margins beyond a few percentage points? In other words, how brazen are they prepared to be?
For a moment, let’s set aside the not-so-small consideration of election rigging. Let’s examine the four factors that Halperin believes could work to Harris’ advantage, most necessarily in concert.
Abortion. Abortion isn’t showing up as a big driver with voters. A Pew Research survey of registered voters (sampling likely voters would have given a better read) wrapped up on September 2. It revealed that abortion is ranked eight out of ten key issues. The partisan breakdown is interesting. Harris has made abortion a cornerstone of her campaign. Among Harris supporters, the economy edged out abortion by just a percentage point. Both issues trailed healthcare and Supreme Court appointments in importance. With an open border resulting in floods of illegals and big cities plagued by crime, what does that say about Harris supporters?
Among all registered voters queried, the top three issues were the economy, healthcare, and Supreme Court appointments. A dubious two out of three, given the pressing issues the nation faces, but let’s roll with it.
Halperin wonders if there’s a latent vote among pro-abortion women that polling isn’t capturing. Halperin commented that Trump has gone to great pains to neutralize abortion as a driver. Trump conspicuously supports the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling returning abortion to the states. He pledges to leave the issue with the states.
Is abortion really a powerhouse issue that’s flying under the radar? Are there enough intense abortion backers to help tip the scales for Harris? Or is Harris just scrambling to try to shore up her base? Will pro-abortion women – specifically, blue-collar and middle-income wage earners – cast ballots on a single issue? Are they willing to overlook the higher costs of groceries, gas, and utilities – higher costs that the Biden-Harris administration are responsible for? Does aborting babies matter more than paying bills?
Gender Gap. Halperin points out that women vote in greater numbers than men, and more women vote Democrat, hence, the gender gap. Social issues tend to drive that vote. What impact will inflation, crime, and the flood of illegals have on women’s votes? That’s working-class and middle-income women, in particular.
Claims Politico (October 11), the Trump campaign has “given up” trying to close the gender gap by attracting more female voters. Instead, Trump’s play is to boost the male vote. Perhaps Trump is having enough success doing so that it’s set off alarms among Democrats, who’ve focused lately on wooing male voters. Tim Walz’s comical pheasant hunt was a go at aligning with average guys. Democrats are also fretting about black male voters defecting to Trump. Modest gains in black support for Trump may be fatal for Harris. Will younger male voters, including black men, and white working-class females help Trump close the gender gap?
Ground Game. Sounds awfully nuts and bolts, and it is. The ground game refers to grassroots operations to identify, register, and secure ballots from target voters. Let’s face it, Democrats have run more effective, sophisticated operations to get ballots cast than Republicans since 2020 – you remember, the Covid election, when voting laws were liberalized. Rahm Emanuel has every right to crow that Covid was a crisis that Democrats didn’t waste.
This year, closing the ballot gap has been a priority for Trump and Republicans in battleground states. Scott Pressler is leading the charge in Pennsylvania.
Reported the Philadelphia Inquirer, October 13:
“Presler is focused on flipping Pennsylvania red, including purple Bucks County, namely through his organization, Early Vote Action, which had a table at the event. Lara Trump, RNC cochair and the former president’s daughter-in-law, has commended Presler for his efforts, citing Republican registration surpassing that of Democrats in Bucks and Luzerne Counties. Republicans currently have a 936-person registration lead in Bucks, according to the county’s voter statistics. In Luzerne, Republicans have a 3,965-person edge.”
Pennsylvania’s voter registration gap has closed dramatically since the 1990s, when Democrats enjoyed an edge of close to a million more registrants than Republicans. The gap now stands at 333,000.
The big challenge – and it’s big – is translating new GOP registrations into ballots.
Trump’s Personality. Sure, you either love Trump or hate him. But no nothing new here. Halperin says Trump has a ceiling of 47% support. But that claim doesn’t square with his assertion that Trump wins big if he wins – unless he was referring just to the Electoral College.
Unmentioned by Halperin is Kamala Harris’ personality. It’s grating for many people. That includes women. She hasn’t earned the nickname, “Cacklin’ Kamala” for no reason. Her favorable/unfavorable numbers are a lackluster break even.
It isn’t only about how Republicans or Democrats perceive the candidates. It’s about independents. They’re pivotal in swing states. Given the critical issues confronting the nation; given that most people are struggling to pay bills; given that most people grasp the damage being done by the Biden-Harris de facto open border policy; given that crime is creeping into suburbs and Argentina’s Tren de Aragua is terrorizing Auroa, Colorado; maybe Trump’s personality won’t be the decider among independents?
Trump is better positioned going into the 2024 stretch run then in his previous two efforts. That’s cause for optimism. But the race remains a nailbiter. Like Reagan’s 1980 landslide victory, independents may break late for Trump. That, along with Trump’s track record for overperforming polls, may make him only the second president to serve nonconsecutive terms in U.S. history. But if it’s close, well, to channel Yogi Berra, “Will 2024 be 2020 all over again?”
J. Robert Smith can be found at X. His handle is @JRobertSmith1. At Gab, @JRobertSmith. He regularly contributes to American Thinker.