Monthly Archives: September 2020

Elections 2020: Trump Must-win States, Florida and Arizona

Flyover

  • Sept. 27, 2020
  • 4 min read

President

Arizona/Florida: As a polling entity, the ABC News/Washington Post effort is rated as one of six A+ pollsters on the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization rating card. The media partners just released a pair of polls this week, one from Arizona and the other Florida. They both capture how much a survey sample can swing based upon segmentation, in this case from registered to likely voters.

The Arizona poll (9/15-20; 701 AZ registered voters; 579 AZ likely voters) finds President Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden, 47-49% with registered voters, but leading 49-48% among those who are most likely to vote. In Florida, we see an even greater split. That ABC/WP survey (9/15-20; 765 FL registered voters; 613 FL likely voters) projects that Mr. Biden is holding a bare 48-47% edge among those registered to vote but leads 51-47% within the segment of those most likely to cast their ballot. This example underscores the importance of the voter participation model in determining election outcomes.

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Do You Value Freedom More than Security? Vote Republican.

Rob Meyne

  • Sept. 24, 2020
  • 5 min read

No issue in memory reveals more clearly how differently two extremes of the political spectrum react to things. There are a number of assumptions/generalizations made about people, mostly conservatives, who don’t like things like mask mandates. As is often the case, I don’t think our opposition understands us. So here are a few generalizations that the left/progressives/socialists/mainstream media make about “us,” and thoughts on how many of us actually think. Not all of this applies to everyone, of course, but it is a start.

What they say, vs. what we think.

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If You Don’t Wear A Mask, You Must Hate People

Rob Meyne

  • Sept. 22, 2020
  • 3 min read

It’s human nature to think that whatever we are going through right now is the worst, most extreme, most memorable event of its kind. Ever. Sometimes it is true. Our tendency to exaggerate notwithstanding, I am confident that future historians will look at the COVID pandemic as one of the seminal issues of our lifetimes. It is at least as important as 911 and Viet Nam.

In 2020 we set a new standard for how we would react to a serious health crisis. We made a collective decision – or more accurately a few dozen governors, scientists, and regulators made it for us – that it is worth trashing our entire economy, driving millions of businesses into bankruptcy, and putting non-COVID health matters at the back of the line in order to potentially save some lives. Previously, it had not occurred to us that we should just shut things down. The downside was too great. Now it is precedent.

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2020 Elections: Presidential Polls and More

Flyover

  • Sept. 19, 2020
  • 4 min read

President

Florida: Two more Florida polls were released this week showing a tightening of the race between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. Both Monmouth and Florida Atlantic Universities were in the field during the September 9-13 period. Monmouth (9/10-13; 428 FL likely voters; live interview) found Mr. Biden leading 50-45% under their high turnout model, and an almost identical 49-46% if the voter participation factor proves lower. FAU (9/11-12; 831 FL likely voters; live interview and online) finds the two candidates tied at 50-50% when all respondents are pushed to make a decision. Once again, Florida is a very close state but a must-win for President Trump.

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Elections 2020: Will Biden Debate Trump? And Senate Developments

Flyover

  • Sept. 8, 2020
  • 4 min read

President

Debates: Last October, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced the entire series schedule for both the presidential and vice-presidential forums and the details have only slightly changed. Because of the COVID crowd restrictions, the University of Notre Dame declined to host the first forum. It has been re-located to Case Western University in Cleveland and remains scheduled for Tuesday, September 29th. The lone Vice-Presidential debate then follows on Wednesday, October 7th at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. We return to the presidential debate series on Thursday, October 15th, tabbed for the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami that will feature a town hall format. The finale occurs a week later on October 22nd from Belmont University in Nashville.

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I Know You Are, But What Am I?

Rob Meyne

  • Sept. 8, 2020
  • 4 min read

Perhaps the least debatable statement one can make about the 2020 campaign is that it is going to be unusual. Duh. In a year characterized by riots, a pandemic, and an invasion of rabid honey badgers, it is almost inevitable the election will be different.

Democratic leaders and their sycophantic cadre of flying monkeys in the media are circulating the message that, whatever happens, they will not concede. The Hildebeast, notably, has said Biden should not concede. The careful reader might notice that the Democrats have been promoting the fear that Trump will not concede, even if he loses, but have no problem doing that very thing. In 2000, the Democrats set the standard for not accepting election results. Al Gore fought until, literally, there were no legal options remaining. The key issue was Florida, where Gore never led a single vote count. Ultimately, fewer than 700 votes in Florida determined the winner. Which reminds us how important it is to make sure there is no fraudulent voting, or inaccurate counts.

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