The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent. READ MORE AT: The National Pulse
Arizona/Florida: As a polling entity, the ABC News/Washington Post effort is rated as one of six A+ pollsters on the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization rating card. The media partners just released a pair of polls this week, one from Arizona and the other Florida. They both capture how much a survey sample can swing based upon segmentation, in this case from registered to likely voters.
The Arizona poll (9/15-20; 701 AZ registered voters; 579 AZ likely voters) finds President Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden, 47-49% with registered voters, but leading 49-48% among those who are most likely to vote. In Florida, we see an even greater split. That ABC/WP survey (9/15-20; 765 FL registered voters; 613 FL likely voters) projects that Mr. Biden is holding a bare 48-47% edge among those registered to vote but leads 51-47% within the segment of those most likely to cast their ballot. This example underscores the importance of the voter participation model in determining election outcomes.
Florida: Two more Florida polls were released this week showing a tightening of the race between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. Both Monmouth and Florida Atlantic Universities were in the field during the September 9-13 period. Monmouth (9/10-13; 428 FL likely voters; live interview) found Mr. Biden leading 50-45% under their high turnout model, and an almost identical 49-46% if the voter participation factor proves lower. FAU (9/11-12; 831 FL likely voters; live interview and online) finds the two candidates tied at 50-50% when all respondents are pushed to make a decision. Once again, Florida is a very close state but a must-win for President Trump.
Debates: Last October, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced the entire series schedule for both the presidential and vice-presidential forums and the details have only slightly changed. Because of the COVID crowd restrictions, the University of Notre Dame declined to host the first forum. It has been re-located to Case Western University in Cleveland and remainsscheduled for Tuesday, September 29th. The lone Vice-Presidential debate then follows on Wednesday, October 7th at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. We return to the presidential debate series on Thursday, October 15th, tabbed for the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami that will feature a town hall format. The finale occurs a week later on October 22nd from Belmont University in Nashville.
Michigan: After being quiet most of the presidential election cycle, the Trafalgar Group, the only pollster to correctly project the Great Lakes states in the 2016 election, released new data for Michigan, and again they are cutting against the polling grain. According to their latest political research study (6/16-18; 1,101 MI likely voters), Trafalgar projects former Vice President Joe Biden to hold only a one-point 46-45% lead over President Trump, which is almost identical to Change Research’s (6/12-14; 353 MI likely voters) 47-45% published polling margin.
Tomorrow, Flyover drills down on key governors races. Join us every weekend to November for a finger-on-the pulse of critical elections!
Alabama: It appears not much has changed since soon after the March 3rd Alabama statewide primary. Retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville finished ahead of former US Attorney General and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions in the Republican primary, and immediate post-election polling reported that Mr. Tuberville was opening a large lead. Despite the time lag, such still appears to be the case.
Georgia: With almost all of the remaining Georgia statewide ballots counted, documentary film maker and former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff has been declared the winner of Tuesday’s Democratic US Senate primary. He now advances into the general election against Sen. David Perdue (R) with a 51% primary victory over former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson and ex-Lt. Governor nominee Sarah Riggs Amico.
Every weekend, Flyover will deep dive the critical races for the presidency and Congress. Make sure to join us regularly!
Colorado: There had been legal maneuverings and challenges to the state signature requirements, but the Colorado Democratic Senate ballot is now down to two contenders to earn the right to oppose Sen. Cory Gardner (R), in the June 30th primary: former Gov. John Hickenlooper and ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. With the courts finally making definitive rulings, the ballot is set.