Tag Archives: Georgia

Georgia GOP Playing Wrong Game in Warnock-Walker Runoff

By J Robert Smith

  • Dec. 3, 2022
  • 5-min read

If we could go “Back to the Future” in the 1990s, the likes of James Carville, George Stephanopoulos, and Paul Begala (Bill’s Clinton’s hired guns) would tell us that elections today are “About the ballots, stupid.” And, as much as conservative grassroots and Republicans detest hearing that, it’s true. Thanks to the infamous Covid lockdowns, changes made to election laws in the states, early voting and mail-in balloting have dramatically altered the elections landscape.

Democrats are gleefully stealing marches in mail-in voting, in particular. It’s a monumental tactical error for Republicans and Trump activists to urge voters to wait until Election Day to vote. Why? Because not all pro-Republican voters get out to vote, for various reasons. Democrats no longer try to persuade voters to vote. They’ve put in place systems to obtain their target voters’ ballots early.

Case in point, the Georgia U.S. Senate runoff between incumbent Ralph Warnock and Hershel Walker. The election finale is this Tuesday, December 6.

The betting is that Warnock has a slight edge because the instant Democrats were free to start extracting ballots from their voters, they did so. Not haphazardly, mind you, but systematically. It doesn’t appear that Georgia Republicans are doing anything comparable. That may prove fatal.

From ABC News, December 3:

Georgians swarmed to the polls on the last day of early voting before next week’s Senate runoff, setting a new record for single-day early in-person turnout.

At least 352,953 people voted in person on Friday, bringing the total number of votes, either in person or absentee, to over 1.8 million. That number represents 26.4% of active voters.

Of course, we can’t know for certain that more of those votes are Democrat or Republican ballots, but it appears the trend is repeating itself. Like the 2022 general elections in Georgia and elsewhere, Democrats are clocking the GOP in mail-in and early voting.

From CNN Politics, December 1:

So far in early voting, Black voters make up a little more than 33% of the electorate, while White voters account for 54%. At a roughly similar point in the general election based on the number of early votes cast, about 31% of voters were Black and about 57% were White.

This may seem like a small difference, but given the large partisan gap between Black and White voters, it suggests that those who have gone to the polls so far are more Democratic than at a similar point in the general election.

I should note that a number of Democratic counties opened up early in-person voting sooner than Republican-leaning counties. That said, voters in all Georgia counties have been able to cast a ballot for a number of days now, and the racial voting gap between the general election and runoff has not gone away.

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Two Reasons Why the Red Wave Wasn’t… and What Republicans can do about It

By J Robert Smith

  • Nov. 24, 2022
  • 3-min read

There’s more than a couple of reasons why the expected Red Wave didn’t happen. Here, we’re referring specifically to congressional elections. But there are two reasons that aren’t very sexy but most definitely blunted Republican gains. One is early voting and mail-in balloting.

The second, which pertains to U.S. House contests, is redistricting. Republicans actually won about 6 million more votes in House elections in 2022 than did Democrats. The trouble was that district lines were drawn in such ways that diluted GOP strengths.

Redistricting is mandated by the U.S. Constitution. It isn’t a sexy topic. In fact, it’s sort of wonky, but in redrawing U.S. House district lines in 2021, Republicans were either out maneuvered by Democrats or victims of “redistricting commissions.” That depends on how states decide the every ten years reapportionment of House seats. Democrats were definitely aggressive in New York and New Mexico, drawing lines that lopsidedly favored them. Surprisingly, the New York Supreme Court struck down the Democrats’ grossly gerrymandered map, replacing it with a map that actually allowed Republicans to gain seats. No such thing happened in New Mexico, where Democrats drew lines that cost the GOP the one seat it held.

We can add that the U.S. Census, which was conducted in 2020, undercounted population gains in some red states, while overcounting population in some blue states. That’s more than a little suspicious.

There’s no point into getting deep into the weeds about redistricting. The next round of redistricting happens in 2030, though the U.S. Supreme Court will hear a Civil Rights case about Alabama’s lines being racially discriminatory in early 2023. Nonetheless, the cake is baked.

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2022 Midterms: No Stink on the Republican Establishment?

By J Robert Smith

  • Nov. 13, 2022
  • 1-min read

Attacks on Donald Trump have begun in the aftermath of the midterm elections. We should have set our watches. Washington’s Republican establishment is pushing the line that the GOP’s underperformance in the midterms is “100%” Trump’s fault. Of course, there’s no stink on D.C. Republicans — not Kevin McCarthy, not Mitch McConnell, not Ronna McDaniel, not Tom Emmer (chairman, RNCC), not GOP consultants and pollsters… Not on any Republican who hangs out at the Capitol Hill Club.

Conservatives shouldn’t be goaded into a Trump versus DeSantis fight. Trump and DeSantis shouldn’t permit themselves to be baited, either. It’s so transparent, it’s laughable. That’s exactly what the establishment is trying. Washington Republicans don’t intend to just knock out Trump, but split conservatives. Is that rank odor wafting through the air from Karl Rove and Jeb! lurking behind the curtains?

Read the full article at American Thinker. Follow this link. Thanks.

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The GOP Majority Hangs in the Balance; Georgia Is Ground Zero

Flyover

  • May 15, 2020
  • 6 min read

Collins Still the One to Beat

One of the key seats Republicans need to win to keep the majority is held by new Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R). The race is one of the more interesting, and unusual.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed the mega-wealthy businesswoman to replace venerable Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson (R), who resigned last year due to health reasons. The thought was Loeffler could benefit the GOP ticket because she could connect with suburban women voters, a cohort which many believe will over-perform for Democrats this fall, and where Republicans performed poorly in the midterm election.

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Elections 2020: Rounding Up House & Senate Nomination Battles

Flyover

  • June 21, 2020
  • 6 min read

Focus: Senate

Arizona: The Civiqs polling organization, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections website (6/13-15; 1,368 AZ previously selected respondents from a larger sampling pool; online), again finds retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) holding a substantial lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R).The numbers break 51-42% in Kelly’s favor, which is actually a slight improvement for McSally. This compares to the poll’s 49-45% split for Joe Biden over President Trump, which is a more reasonable spread as compared to some recent surveys of the Arizona electorate.

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Elections 2020: Can John James Catch Gary Peters in Michigan?

Flyover

  • June 13, 2020
  • 4 min read

Focus: Senate

Georgia: With almost all of the remaining Georgia statewide ballots counted, documentary film maker and former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff has been declared the winner of Tuesday’s Democratic US Senate primary. He now advances into the general election against Sen. David Perdue (R) with a 51% primary victory over former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson and ex-Lt. Governor nominee Sarah Riggs Amico.

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Elections 2020: Will McSally Lose Again in Arizona?

Flyover

  • June 7, 2020
  • 6 min read

Focus: Senate

Arizona: Fox News tested the Arizona electorate (5/30-6/2; 1,002 AZ registered voters) and while they post improving numbers for President Trump (trailing Joe Biden 42-46%), they find retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) continuing to build a substantial lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). These results find Mr. Kelly posting a 50-37% advantage.

Georgia: The postponed Georgia primary is scheduled for this coming Tuesday, and a new Cygnal poll finds former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff knocking on the door of a majority win in the Democratic primary. According to the survey (5/28-30; 510 GA likely Democratic primary voters), Mr. Ossoff leads former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson, 49-16%, with the remaining five candidates splitting the small remainder of votes.

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Elections 2020: It’s Critical … We’re Keeping You Informed

Rob Meyne

  • May 14, 2020
  • 2 min read

At Flyover-Patriots.com, our mission is to encourage constructive commentary about political issues, elected officials, and the campaign environment. We do so from a conservative perspective and make no apologies for it! But we welcome thoughts from all political mindsets, providing they are factually accurate and well-intentioned. If you just want to call people names, go on MSNBC or see if you can fill in for Don Lemon! Our number one objective is to post commentary that’s interesting and, hopefully, a bit provocative. However, there is also a paucity of reliable information about individual campaigns. In particular, the dearth of solid survey information for House and Senate races can create perceptions that are very misleading. It is easy to create a “bad” poll by manipulating the sample and phrasing questions in order to get the response you want. Then, the headlines often don’t reflect the story itself.

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