Tag Archives: Presidential Race

Elections 2020: An Honest Poll Shows Trump Leading

Flyover

  • Oct. 4, 2020
  • 6 min read

From the National Pulse:

Now, a Sunday Express/Democracy Institute poll shows Donald Trump in the lead because it does not weight against Republicans.

The Express‘ David Maddox reported:

The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent. READ MORE AT: The National Pulse

Continue reading

Elections 2020: Trump Must-win States, Florida and Arizona

Flyover

  • Sept. 27, 2020
  • 4 min read

President

Arizona/Florida: As a polling entity, the ABC News/Washington Post effort is rated as one of six A+ pollsters on the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization rating card. The media partners just released a pair of polls this week, one from Arizona and the other Florida. They both capture how much a survey sample can swing based upon segmentation, in this case from registered to likely voters.

The Arizona poll (9/15-20; 701 AZ registered voters; 579 AZ likely voters) finds President Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden, 47-49% with registered voters, but leading 49-48% among those who are most likely to vote. In Florida, we see an even greater split. That ABC/WP survey (9/15-20; 765 FL registered voters; 613 FL likely voters) projects that Mr. Biden is holding a bare 48-47% edge among those registered to vote but leads 51-47% within the segment of those most likely to cast their ballot. This example underscores the importance of the voter participation model in determining election outcomes.

Continue reading

2020 Elections: Presidential Polls and More

Flyover

  • Sept. 19, 2020
  • 4 min read

President

Florida: Two more Florida polls were released this week showing a tightening of the race between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. Both Monmouth and Florida Atlantic Universities were in the field during the September 9-13 period. Monmouth (9/10-13; 428 FL likely voters; live interview) found Mr. Biden leading 50-45% under their high turnout model, and an almost identical 49-46% if the voter participation factor proves lower. FAU (9/11-12; 831 FL likely voters; live interview and online) finds the two candidates tied at 50-50% when all respondents are pushed to make a decision. Once again, Florida is a very close state but a must-win for President Trump.

Continue reading

Elections 2020: Will Biden Debate Trump? And Senate Developments

Flyover

  • Sept. 8, 2020
  • 4 min read

President

Debates: Last October, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced the entire series schedule for both the presidential and vice-presidential forums and the details have only slightly changed. Because of the COVID crowd restrictions, the University of Notre Dame declined to host the first forum. It has been re-located to Case Western University in Cleveland and remains scheduled for Tuesday, September 29th. The lone Vice-Presidential debate then follows on Wednesday, October 7th at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. We return to the presidential debate series on Thursday, October 15th, tabbed for the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami that will feature a town hall format. The finale occurs a week later on October 22nd from Belmont University in Nashville.

Continue reading

Elections 2020: Trump Trails Biden in Arizona

Flyover

  • May 30, 2020
  • 2 min read

Sunday, join us for a look at U.S. House and Senate races.

Focus: President

Arizona Poll: In the middle of May, OH Predictive Insights (5/9-11; 600 AZ likely general election voters) released their Arizona statewide survey that received considerable attention in the political pundit community due to the Grand Canyon State’s importance in the presidential campaign. With its 11 electoral votes, Arizona is a must-win state for the Trump campaign. The OH poll found former Vice President Biden leading 50-43%, his largest margin to date, but little in the way of analysis accompanied the poll release.

Continue reading

Elections 2020: Trump Leads Early in Pennsylvania?

Flyover

  • May 22, 2020
  • 1 min read

We continue are weekend series looking at this year’s election contests. Saturday, U.S. House and Senate races. Sunday, governorships.

Focus: President

Rep. Justin Amash: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (L-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids) decided not to seek the Libertarian Party presidential nomination after filing an exploratory committee to assess his chances. Rep. Amash cited the COVID-19 precautions that make personal campaigning difficult as one reason not to continue along the presidential path. He says he is committed to helping build the national Libertarian Party, however.

Arizona: Regular Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights (5/9-11; 600 AZ likely voters) finds former Vice President Joe Biden putting some distance between he and President Trump, 50-43%, in what is a must-win state for the Republican incumbent. The poll itself is not yet in the public domain, therefore making it difficult to analyze the nuances.

Hodas Polls: The Hodas & Associates survey research firm went into the field to test the swing Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic states and produced surprisingly inconsistent data. Conducting surveys among sampling universes of 600 likely general election voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in early May, Hodas finds the results very different than the three close wins Donald Trump recorded in these places four years ago. While former Vice President Joe Biden posts wide leads in Wisconsin (51-42%) and Michigan (50-42%), he surprisingly trails President Trump in Pennsylvania (46-50%).

Elections 2020: Critical Battle for President

Flyover

  • May 16, 2020
  • 2 min read

This is the first in what will be a series of weekly updates on key 2020 campaigns. We are watching closely, as we hope you will, and welcome your comments and suggestions.

Focus: President

Jesse Ventura: Former Minnesota Governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura announced that he will not become a candidate for the Green Party presidential nomination. Mr. Ventura says doing so would force him to relinquish his employment and health insurance. The eventual Green Party nominee will qualify for most state ballots, as will the nominee of the Libertarian Party. Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (L-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids), the first official member of the Libertarian Party to hold a seat in Congress, is a candidate for his party’s presidential nomination.

Continue reading