By J Robert Smith
- October 31, 2026
- 3-min read
No hedging, point blank: There will be no blue wave.
The contours of 2026 will resemble the contours of the 2022 midterms. Then, Republicans had high hopes for a red wave, given the ongoing failures of the Biden presidency (including high inflation and wide-open borders). Yet, Republicans only made modest gains in U.S. House and Senate races. They eked out enough victories to barely capture the House. The Senate remained in Democrat hands.
Expect a similar result next week.
Why? Unlike Biden, Trump has his share of successes. The borders are closed and the worst illegals are being deported. Hundreds of thousands of others are self-deporting. Inflation hovers around 3.5% and the GDP is growing. Energy costs are still pinching consumers, so that’s factoring against Republican candidates. So, it’s a mixed bag. But the negatives aren’t driving voters to the Democrats in a big way.
Then there’s House redistricting. It stopped being an art years ago and became a science. There are far fewer competitive districts nowadays. The GOP only enjoys a small majority in the House. Just a handful of contests going in Democrats favor will tip the balance. That’s likely.
There is an chance that Republican (namely, MAGA) turnout will be stronger than anticipated. The polls have been notoriously wrong for years, and turnout has always been hard to predict. If that’s the case, Republican retention of the House and Senate will cause an explosion among frustrated Democrats and their allies. Would that play out in the streets? Don’t discount protests and violence in blue cities.
Individual races of note… (GOP Holds the Senate)
Senate
Michigan: I’ll predict again that El-Sayed loses to Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race. El-Sayed over-polled in his primary fight (some 15 points) and only won the nomination by less than a point. He’s over-polling again. Enough oldline, rank and file Democrats (including Blacks and Jews) will either skip voting for El-Sayed or hold their noses and vote for Rogers.
Texas: Texans are as likely to elect James Tallarico as they are Bernie Sanders. Right. Ken Paxton is a flawed candidate. Yet, he was elected Texas attorney general three times. Despite the baggage, he’s a known quantity to Texas voters. They approve of his conservative approach to law enforcement. Tallarico is a left-wing flake with strange interpretations of Christian teachings. Both are off-putting to a majority of Lone Star voters. Moreover, Texas is a GOP state, and Democrats haven’t cracked the GOP stranglehold on statewide elections for years. That pattern isn’t changing next week. Paxton wins by 5%, at least.
Maine: Susan Collins has been under-polled in her two most recent reelection bids. Troy Jackson is another oddball Democrat who, in this case, is married to his cousin. Collins brings home the bacon for Mainers. They aren’t forgetting. She wins by a good margin.
Minnesota: This is an open-seat contest. Likely winner, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flannagan, a left-winger who never skips a chance to pander to the Twin Cities’ Somali community. Michele Tafoya is an excellent candidate, and in a more competitive state would be favored to capture the seat. But in Minnesota, she has to overcome the Democrat vote in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area. The chance for an upset hinges on independents and some Democrats turning off Flanagan due to her turning a blind eye (at least) to the massive fraud on the part of Somalis. Tens of millions of dollars (conservatively) were bilked from state government agencies. If voters believe that Flanagan is part of the problem, then Tafoya has a route to victory. Worth watching.
Will there be surprises? Almost every national election contains surprises, for good or ill. Next Tuesday night won’t be an exception. But 2026 is the new 2022.
But for that to happen, Republicans and MAGA need to vote. Turnout is king.