Tag Archives: Michigan elections

Midterm Elections: Final Take

By J Robert Smith

  • October 31, 2026
  • 3-min read

No hedging, point blank: There will be no blue wave.

The contours of 2026 will resemble the contours of the 2022 midterms. Then, Republicans had high hopes for a red wave, given the ongoing failures of the Biden presidency (including high inflation and wide-open borders). Yet, Republicans only made modest gains in U.S. House and Senate races. They eked out enough victories to barely capture the House. The Senate remained in Democrat hands.

Expect a similar result next week.

Why? Unlike Biden, Trump has his share of successes. The borders are closed and the worst illegals are being deported. Hundreds of thousands of others are self-deporting. Inflation hovers around 3.5% and the GDP is growing. Energy costs are still pinching consumers, so that’s factoring against Republican candidates. So, it’s a mixed bag. But the negatives aren’t driving voters to the Democrats in a big way.

Then there’s House redistricting. It stopped being an art years ago and became a science. There are far fewer competitive districts nowadays. The GOP only enjoys a small majority in the House. Just a handful of contests going in Democrats favor will tip the balance. That’s likely.

There is an chance that Republican (namely, MAGA) turnout will be stronger than anticipated. The polls have been notoriously wrong for years, and turnout has always been hard to predict. If that’s the case, Republican retention of the House and Senate will cause an explosion among frustrated Democrats and their allies. Would that play out in the streets? Don’t discount protests and violence in blue cities.

Individual races of note… (GOP Holds the Senate)

Senate

Michigan: I’ll predict again that El-Sayed loses to Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race. El-Sayed over-polled in his primary fight (some 15 points) and only won the nomination by less than a point. He’s over-polling again. Enough oldline, rank and file Democrats (including Blacks and Jews) will either skip voting for El-Sayed or hold their noses and vote for Rogers.

Texas: Texans are as likely to elect James Tallarico as they are Bernie Sanders. Right. Ken Paxton is a flawed candidate. Yet, he was elected Texas attorney general three times. Despite the baggage, he’s a known quantity to Texas voters. They approve of his conservative approach to law enforcement. Tallarico is a left-wing flake with strange interpretations of Christian teachings. Both are off-putting to a majority of Lone Star voters. Moreover, Texas is a GOP state, and Democrats haven’t cracked the GOP stranglehold on statewide elections for years. That pattern isn’t changing next week. Paxton wins by 5%, at least.

Maine: Susan Collins has been under-polled in her two most recent reelection bids. Troy Jackson is another oddball Democrat who, in this case, is married to his cousin. Collins brings home the bacon for Mainers. They aren’t forgetting. She wins by a good margin.

Minnesota: This is an open-seat contest. Likely winner, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flannagan, a left-winger who never skips a chance to pander to the Twin Cities’ Somali community. Michele Tafoya is an excellent candidate, and in a more competitive state would be favored to capture the seat. But in Minnesota, she has to overcome the Democrat vote in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area. The chance for an upset hinges on independents and some Democrats turning off Flanagan due to her turning a blind eye (at least) to the massive fraud on the part of Somalis. Tens of millions of dollars (conservatively) were bilked from state government agencies. If voters believe that Flanagan is part of the problem, then Tafoya has a route to victory. Worth watching.

Will there be surprises? Almost every national election contains surprises, for good or ill. Next Tuesday night won’t be an exception. But 2026 is the new 2022.

But for that to happen, Republicans and MAGA need to vote. Turnout is king.

Don’t Bet on a Blue Wave Unless…

There’s really only one way that Democrats rack up a lot of victories in the midterm elections: Trump (MAGA) voters stay home. Turnout is king. Trump voters can blunt Democrats expected gains.

That doesn’t mean that Democrats won’t pick up congressional seats. Republicans only enjoy a three-seat advantage in the U.S. House. Democrats are capable of flipping a handful of competitive seats to win control. If that happens, their majority will be razor-thin. Competitive House elections often hinge on local issues, personalities, and miscellanea, so a Democrat takeover could happen. But if contests are tight, anything can happen.

The U.S. Senate is another story. There, Republicans prospects brighten.

Key States:

Texas. All the blather about a James Talarico victory in Texas ignores a few facts. One, Ken Paxton – Texas attorney general – has won three statewide elections. He’s a known quantity. In other words, voters are well aware of his negatives and have elected him statewide repeatedly. Second, Texas is a red state. Voters lean right and Republican. Third, the state now has a long voting history favoring Republican candidates. Nothing has changed. Not that an upset can’t happen, but Talarico is an oddball leftist. He stands outside most Texas voters’ faith, values, and cultural comfort zones.

Michigan. Mike Rogers has the inside track despite polls that show him trailing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Take note: In the Democrat primary, El-Sayed polled a double-digit lead over his opponent. He won by less than a point. Bet on Rogers under-polling. Plenty of Michigan voters – that’s some Democrats and plenty of independents – won’t admit to opposing El-Sayed for fear of being branded an “Islamophobe.” The black vote will be interesting. Blacks vote Democrat routinely but are predominantly Christians and most blacks hold traditional values. They may not vote for Rogers, but they could skip voting for El-Sayed.

Maine. Veteran GOP senator Susan Collins is routinely underestimated and under-polled. She’ll win again.

New Hampshire. The Sununu name is strong with voters, but the state’s lean favors Chris Papas, a multiterm Democrat congressman.

Ohio. Jon Husted versus Sherrod Brown. Lefty Sherrod Brown held the seat for years and lost two years ago after spending $30 million on his reelection. Husted is the former lt. governor. He’s a proven statewide vote-getter. Ohio is red. Polls tend to understate GOP support. Brown could upset, but the betting is on a close Husted win.

Kansas. Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall enjoys a small lead in the polls. Marshall should pull this out, though the state has wobbled some in recent years.

North Carolina. Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper is a likely winner in a purple state. Michael Whatley hasn’t shown much traction to date. Still, statewide contests are usually close.

Alaska. Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan trails Mary Peltola by 1.5%. Alaska’s weird election system makes a Peltola win possible. Must watch.

Iowa. GOP Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is a proven vote-getter in a red state. The election is rated as tight, but a strong get-out-the-vote effort by Republicans should put Hinson over the top.

Minnesota. Former ESPN sportscaster Michele Tafoya is trailing Democrat lt. governor Peggy Flannagan by a little more than a percentage point. Minneapolis-St. Paul metro usually decides statewide contests. Tafoya would need a big turnout from outlying communities and rural Minnesota to win. Possible upset. Worth monitoring.

Georgia. Democrat incumbent Jon Ossoff can count on strong support in sprawling Atlanta metro, particularly among blacks and other minorities. Ossoff is favored to retain the Peach State for Democrats unless there’s an unusually big turnout in outlying suburban and rural communities.

Senate Republicans may lose a seat or two, but will hold a 51-49 or 50-50 majority (Vice President J.D. Vance would break ties if the Senate is evenly split).

Midterms are almost always about which party gets their base voters to cast ballots. Out-party voters are usually more strongly motivated to vote. Democrats have some poor candidates, though, and the rise of socialists in the party either turns off or outright scares independents. Yes, gas and grocery store prices are drivers for anti-GOP voters, but the underlying health of the economy is good, and that should blunt GOP losses. And, critically, House redistricting cuts in favor of Republicans.

Here’s the thing: Vote if you don’t want Democrats running the House and impeaching Trump, Hegseth, and whoever else in his cabinet. The Iran war will end earlier in 2027. Gas and grocery store prices will fall. Trump isn’t finished. There’s more work necessary to straighten out the country. Democrats in charge of Congress would do everything in their powers to scuttle Trump’s accomplishments and prevent further successes. Don’t let that happen. Your vote counts!