John Cornyn had to do one, simple thing to secure renomination for his U.S. Senate seat: Publicly pledge to vote for the SAVE Act. Ken Paxton, who just butt-kicked Cornyn, gave him the opportunity. He said that he’d leave the Senate race if Cornyn did so. Cornyn didn’t do so. He couldn’t do so, even if he wanted to. He owed John Thune and the GOP establishment in the neighborhood of $100 million in campaign monies. The old saying holds: He who pays the piper calls the tunes.
Now, understand Ken Paxton knew this. His offer wasn’t much of a gamble. What it did was set up a beautiful political moment. Paxton declaration was intended to be the coup de grace for Cornyn’s campaign, and it was.
Cornyn’s loss was a face plant for John Thune, the establishment Senate Republican leader. He’s Mitch McConnell’s old protégée. First, Bill Cassidy crashes and burns, and now Cornyn. Crashes and burns, mind you, not gets edged out. Both incumbents are smoldering wreckage.
Thune and his DC circle made a predictably stupid calculation. They decided that Donald Trump was a lame duck, so his grip on MAGA voters was waning. They’d stay home. Surely, the country clubbers would prevail.
Trump’s endorsements of Louisiana conservative Julia Letlow and Paxton wouldn’t tip the balances, Thune reckoned. In any event, dumping truckfuls of money on those contests would push two very lame establishment inbreds across finish lines.
Seems reports of Trump’s political death were greatly exaggerated. MAGA not only remains loyal to the president, but they’re voting. Earlier, seven-term Rep. Thomas Massie was sent packing. Downing Cassidy and Cornyn was a clear message to Thune. “Not only do Cassidy and Cornyn stink, but you stink,” Louisiana and Texas MAGA declared.
Resentment toward Thune and establishment Republicans has been building among Trump loyalists (read: the GOP’s base). Thune stubbornly refuses to bring the SAVE Act to the Senate floor. Check that. He was glad to bring it to the floor in a way that was sure to fail. The Act is one of those rare measures that’s popular across the political spectrum.
Passing it – or at the very least, fighting to pass it – would accrue to GOP candidates benefit. What’s not to like? Let’s see a show of hands. Who supports cheating in elections? No brainer, but not for Thune, who says he doesn’t have the votes in his caucus to pass the proposal. Democrats will filibuster. Democrats would hijack the debate during a filibuster or some such. Excuse after excuse.
Then there is Trump’s desire to make recess appointments for his judicial nominees, who Democrats are stalling in the Senate. Thune’s determination to block recess appointments to preserve Senate tradition is costing conservatives’ wins on the federal bench.
If public polling is to be believed, Thune’s popularity in his home state, South Dakota, has cratered. That speaks volumes. As Senate majority leader, Thune funnels many millions of dollars into South Dakota. Farmers and energy producers (both major industries) benefit. But voters are turning off. Why? Because the GOP is now the Party of Trump. MAGA is dominant. Stalling Trump’s agenda doesn’t win votes.
So, Thune has a choice. Get in step with Trump and start pushing his agenda, or risk adverse political consequences. Thune should be ousted from his leadership position by fellow GOP senators if he fails Trump. If he’s not, South Dakota’s MAGA voters may do the job in 2028.