Tag Archives: Texas

Two Reasons Why the Red Wave Wasn’t… and What Republicans can do about It

By J Robert Smith

  • Nov. 24, 2022
  • 3-min read

There’s more than a couple of reasons why the expected Red Wave didn’t happen. Here, we’re referring specifically to congressional elections. But there are two reasons that aren’t very sexy but most definitely blunted Republican gains. One is early voting and mail-in balloting.

The second, which pertains to U.S. House contests, is redistricting. Republicans actually won about 6 million more votes in House elections in 2022 than did Democrats. The trouble was that district lines were drawn in such ways that diluted GOP strengths.

Redistricting is mandated by the U.S. Constitution. It isn’t a sexy topic. In fact, it’s sort of wonky, but in redrawing U.S. House district lines in 2021, Republicans were either out maneuvered by Democrats or victims of “redistricting commissions.” That depends on how states decide the every ten years reapportionment of House seats. Democrats were definitely aggressive in New York and New Mexico, drawing lines that lopsidedly favored them. Surprisingly, the New York Supreme Court struck down the Democrats’ grossly gerrymandered map, replacing it with a map that actually allowed Republicans to gain seats. No such thing happened in New Mexico, where Democrats drew lines that cost the GOP the one seat it held.

We can add that the U.S. Census, which was conducted in 2020, undercounted population gains in some red states, while overcounting population in some blue states. That’s more than a little suspicious.

There’s no point into getting deep into the weeds about redistricting. The next round of redistricting happens in 2030, though the U.S. Supreme Court will hear a Civil Rights case about Alabama’s lines being racially discriminatory in early 2023. Nonetheless, the cake is baked.

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Springtime for Mask Tyranny


By J Robert Smith

  • Apr 10
  • 4 min read

If you live in a red state – Florida, Texas, and Mississippi are on my mind – where your governor has decided that lockdowns (even partial) and mask mandates are pretty much wastes of times, count yourself lucky. If you live in a blue state – oh, say, New York, Pennsylvania, California, New Jersey – with a petty tyrant for governor, an inert or rubber-stamp legislature, and courts controlled by make-the-law-up Democrat judges, you’re still being forced to knuckle under, to one degree or another.

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Elections 2020: Trump and Biden in a Dead Heat in Michigan?

Flyover

  • June 29, 2020
  • 7 min read

Focus: President

Michigan: After being quiet most of the presidential election cycle, the Trafalgar Group, the only pollster to correctly project the Great Lakes states in the 2016 election, released new data for Michigan, and again they are cutting against the polling grain. According to their latest political research study (6/16-18; 1,101 MI likely voters), Trafalgar projects former Vice President Joe Biden to hold only a one-point 46-45% lead over President Trump, which is almost identical to Change Research’s (6/12-14; 353 MI likely voters) 47-45% published polling margin.

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