Tag Archives: Midterm elections

Don’t Bet on a Blue Wave Unless…

There’s really only one way that Democrats rack up a lot of victories in the midterm elections: Trump (MAGA) voters stay home. Turnout is king. Trump voters can blunt Democrats expected gains.

That doesn’t mean that Democrats won’t pick up congressional seats. Republicans only enjoy a three-seat advantage in the U.S. House. Democrats are capable of flipping a handful of competitive seats to win control. If that happens, their majority will be razor-thin. Competitive House elections often hinge on local issues, personalities, and miscellanea, so a Democrat takeover could happen. But if contests are tight, anything can happen.

The U.S. Senate is another story. There, Republicans prospects brighten.

Key States:

Texas. All the blather about a James Talarico victory in Texas ignores a few facts. One, Ken Paxton – Texas attorney general – has won three statewide elections. He’s a known quantity. In other words, voters are well aware of his negatives and have elected him statewide repeatedly. Second, Texas is a red state. Voters lean right and Republican. Third, the state now has a long voting history favoring Republican candidates. Nothing has changed. Not that an upset can’t happen, but Talarico is an oddball leftist. He stands outside most Texas voters’ faith, values, and cultural comfort zones.

Michigan. Mike Rogers has the inside track despite polls that show him trailing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Take note: In the Democrat primary, El-Sayed polled a double-digit lead over his opponent. He won by less than a point. Bet on Rogers under-polling. Plenty of Michigan voters – that’s some Democrats and plenty of independents – won’t admit to opposing El-Sayed for fear of being branded an “Islamophobe.” The black vote will be interesting. Blacks vote Democrat routinely but are predominantly Christians and most blacks hold traditional values. They may not vote for Rogers, but they could skip voting for El-Sayed.

Maine. Veteran GOP senator Susan Collins is routinely underestimated and under-polled. She’ll win again.

New Hampshire. The Sununu name is strong with voters, but the state’s lean favors Chris Papas, a multiterm Democrat congressman.

Ohio. Jon Husted versus Sherrod Brown. Lefty Sherrod Brown held the seat for years and lost two years ago after spending $30 million on his reelection. Husted is the former lt. governor. He’s a proven statewide vote-getter. Ohio is red. Polls tend to understate GOP support. Brown could upset, but the betting is on a close Husted win.

Kansas. Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall enjoys a small lead in the polls. Marshall should pull this out, though the state has wobbled some in recent years.

North Carolina. Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper is a likely winner in a purple state. Michael Whatley hasn’t shown much traction to date. Still, statewide contests are usually close.

Alaska. Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan trails Mary Peltola by 1.5%. Alaska’s weird election system makes a Peltola win possible. Must watch.

Iowa. GOP Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is a proven vote-getter in a red state. The election is rated as tight, but a strong get-out-the-vote effort by Republicans should put Hinson over the top.

Minnesota. Former ESPN sportscaster Michele Tafoya is trailing Democrat lt. governor Peggy Flannagan by a little more than a percentage point. Minneapolis-St. Paul metro usually decides statewide contests. Tafoya would need a big turnout from outlying communities and rural Minnesota to win. Possible upset. Worth monitoring.

Georgia. Democrat incumbent Jon Ossoff can count on strong support in sprawling Atlanta metro, particularly among blacks and other minorities. Ossoff is favored to retain the Peach State for Democrats unless there’s an unusually big turnout in outlying suburban and rural communities.

Senate Republicans may lose a seat or two, but will hold a 51-49 or 50-50 majority (Vice President J.D. Vance would break ties if the Senate is evenly split).

Midterms are almost always about which party gets their base voters to cast ballots. Out-party voters are usually more strongly motivated to vote. Democrats have some poor candidates, though, and the rise of socialists in the party either turns off or outright scares independents. Yes, gas and grocery store prices are drivers for anti-GOP voters, but the underlying health of the economy is good, and that should blunt GOP losses. And, critically, House redistricting cuts in favor of Republicans.

Here’s the thing: Vote if you don’t want Democrats running the House and impeaching Trump, Hegseth, and whoever else in his cabinet. The Iran war will end earlier in 2027. Gas and grocery store prices will fall. Trump isn’t finished. There’s more work necessary to straighten out the country. Democrats in charge of Congress would do everything in their powers to scuttle Trump’s accomplishments and prevent further successes. Don’t let that happen. Your vote counts!

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In Minnesota, Are Democrats Flirting with Insurrection?

By J Robert Smith

  • Jan. 16, 2026
  • 3-min read

Minnesota governor Tim Walz made a speech the other night claiming that ICE was brutalizing Minnesotans and occupying Minneapolis. He said he wants both to end. Democrats are all about narratives. In other words, concocting self-serving versions of events for highly personal or partisan reasons.

Walz has plenty to worry about. Not only is the massive Somali fraud that’s resulted in billions of federal taxpayer money stolen costing him his reelection bid, but the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating Walz and other Minnesota Democrat officials to determine if they’re culpable in any way.

Walz is trying to distract from his troubles. Moreover, immigrant populations – illegal or legal – have become the lifeblood of the Democrat Party. Though Minnesota is a Democrat state, it’s lighter blue. Republicans control the state house. A capable GOP candidate for statewide office can usually count on a vote tally in the high 40-percent range. That makes Republicans competitive. Democrats need the Somali voting bloc to help keep their grip on statewide offices. Walz is protecting an important bloc in his party’s voting base. He’s happy to overlook crime among Somalis.

Then there’s Jacob Frey, the mayor of Minneapolis, who famously told ICE to get the f**k out of Minneapolis. Understand that ICE isn’t causing any problems in Frey’s city. They’re rooting out and arresting Somali criminals, among others.

In Florida, for example, ICE is working closely with state and local law enforcement to quietly and successfully roundup hardcore criminals among illegals – and, yes, arrest and deport those who are in the U.S. illegally. Florida governor Ron DeSantis is seeing to it.

Per a Grok (X platform) search and analysis:

ICE’s Operation Metro Surge, launched in late 2025 in Minneapolis, has resulted in over 2,000 arrests nationwide, with a focus on the Twin Cities area due to its sanctuary policies. Among those arrested are individuals from various countries, including Somalia, prioritized for criminal convictions or outstanding deportation orders. DHS and ICE have publicly highlighted the “worst of the worst” cases, emphasizing arrests of those convicted of serious crimes like homicide, sexual assault, child abuse, drug trafficking, and fraud. Of the 212 individuals classified as the most dangerous in Minnesota operations, 20 are from Somalia (about 10%), behind Mexico (91) and Honduras (22). Nationwide, 117 people with Somali citizenship were arrested in the initial phase, with 28 in Minnesota.

Walz, Frey, and Minnesota attorney general Keith Ellison have been careful about not calling for outright resistance to federal law enforcement. That would be insurrection. Though they couch their words, their actions indicate attempts at public incitement. They’ve withheld not only state and local law enforcement cooperation with ICE, but have allowed rabble to run Minneapolis’ streets – as in individuals who are committing acts of violence toward federal law enforcement and property destruction. We’re not talking about peaceful, lawful protests, which are a 1st Amendment right.

President Trump is walking a tightrope. Lately, polling suggests that independent voters and moderates are backing off supporting his immigration enforcement efforts. Republicans aren’t, however. The midterm elections are critically important. Republicans holding Congress matters to the final two years of Trump’s term. If enough independents are motivated to vote against Republican House and Senate candidates this autumn, that makes Trump a 24-month lame duck.

Yet, upholding the law matters greatly. Somalis shouldn’t be given passes, having committed fraud on an historic scale. Drug dealers, gangbangers, rapists, child sex traffickers, fraudsters, and thieves, among others, need to be brought to justice. Those here illegally need to be deported.

Perhaps Trump’s solution is to pursue justice and work like hell to get Republicans to the polls this autumn? Perhaps, leadership, resolve, and fighting for a safer America and justice wins votes?

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Is the Senate GOP is about to Ruin Trump’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill?

By J Robert Smith

  • June 10, 2025
  • 2-min read

President Donald Trump wants to give middle-class and working Americans tax breaks. He pledged to do so during last year’s presidential contest. Those promises proved popular and helped elect him. Now, some Senate Republicans are balking. If they wind up gutting some of Trump’s most popular tax-cut initiatives from the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” they risk losing the U.S. House in next year’s midterm elections. If the House flips to the Democrats, it’s game over. The final two years of the Trump presidency will end up like the last two years of his first presidency: marked by investigations, impeachment inquiries, and gridlock. The stakes are enormously high.

Politico is reporting (June 10) that Sen. Ron Johnson (WI) is leaning against “no taxes on tips,” “no taxes on overtime” and tax relief for seniors” – the latter refers to permitting seniors to deduct up to $4,000 annually in taxes on their Social Security pensions. Why Social Security pensions are taxed in the first place is the real question. Working Americans are forced by law to contribute to Social Security. When they retire, Uncle Sam then taxes their pensions. How is that fair?

North Carolina’s Thom Tillis is raising objections, too. Tillis voted to impeach Trump back in 2020. He’s clearly no friend of the president’s. Tillis is an establishment Republican. Does he have any feel for the struggles of working North Carolinians? Tar Heel State conservatives are likely to challenge him for renomination in 2026.

Making legislation is a messy affair. Compromises are standard. Making minor adjustments to accommodate senators are expected. But any changes that break President Trump’s promises to help tens of millions of hardworking – often struggling – Americans should be a nonstarter.

Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the U.S. House. Passing the One, Big, Beautiful Bill largely intact is critical to the GOP holding their House majority next year. Senate Republicans should remember that as they mark up Trump’s signature piece of legislation.

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Biden was Desperate in Philly

By J Robert Smith

  • Sept. 2, 2022
  • 3-min read

Biden’s speech in Philadelphia last night was one for the history books. Joe’s fist-waving anger was daytime soap opera convincing. Half of America, disparaged as “MAGA” or in other venues, as “Ultra-MAGA” are working overtime to destroy democracy, claims our semi-cogent president. We’re fascists or “semi-fascists,” Joe charged days before at a Maryland Democrat rally. What, pray tell, is a “semi-fascist?” Right. Tens of millions of honest, hardworking, patriotic Americans are enemies of liberty, dedicated to waylaying the democratic process, just spoiling for chances to tear down government! Vive la révolution!

So, Biden’s speech, made before hallowed Independence Hall, was bathed in an ominous red light – the color of real revolution (check in with any commie revolution in the last 100 years). In the background, Biden was flanked by two U.S. Marines. I feel sorry for those guys. They were used as props in last night’s lurid theater.

Though the speech that Biden parroted had multiple purposes, it’s immediate purpose was crassly political. Democrats are fearful and growing desperate that the midterm elections are going against them in a Big Way. Biden was using his speech, stuffed with inflammatory rhetoric, as red meat thrown to his party’s true-believing leftist base. Biden’s handlers are scared that the base is demoralized and may not turnout in the numbers Democrats need to hold Congress, governorships, and down-ballot offices. A elections bloodbath looms.

What can we do to make that bloodbath a reality? Vote. Yeah, I know, elections will be rigged, so what’s the point? First, there are plenty of red states where Democrats can’t election-rig. There are “purple” states (like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia) that are highly competitive. In those states, turnouts by pro-freedom forces need to be so substantial that those high numbers overcome any Democrat chicanery. At the very least, we have a moral obligation as patriots to make the effort.

Also, volunteer a little of your time and money to good-guy candidates. We all have busy schedules, and thanks to Biden’s handlers firing up inflation and crushing domestic energy production, our paychecks are being stretched every month. But $5, $10, $25 to a candidate of your choice goes a long way. A little sweat-equity from us helps campaigns a lot.

As a run up to last night’s speech, I had an article run at American Thinker Thursday. If you haven’t read, Biden Takes On the Soul of the Nation, please do! Here’s an excerpt:

“Thursday night, Joe Biden takes to the airwaves to “continue his battle for the soul of the nation.” Sounds kinda biblical — this must be God at work. As to the outcome of this battle, Joe and his godless legions might be in for a little surprise.

“Ahead of the midterms, Biden, whose handlers smell a shellacking coming Democrats’ way, is expected to try to frame the elections as a choice between Orange Man Bad’s 74 million voters and Joe’s collection of Marxists, establishment hacks, wannabe oligarchs, lifer bureaucrats, race hustlers, LGBTQIA+ zanies, and freeloaders.

“Joe, at a Maryland Democrat rally the other day, described America First voters as a “semi-fascist” horde determined to kill democracy. Joe was mum about the game plan Democrats have been pursuing to “transform” democracy. For Democrats, democracy is authoritarianism with a lot of lipstick, rouge, and uses the pronoun “we,” as in we’ve got the power and you don’t.”

The link to that American Thinker article is here: Biden Takes On the Soul of the Nation

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Biden is Hard at Work Trying to Steal the Midterms

By J Robert Smith

  • June 23, 2022
  • 1 min read

Mollie Hemingway, Editor-in-Chief of The Federalist, has a must-read article posted today at The Federalist. The Biden administration has been hard at work for many months using federal programs and offices in the states to identify, register, and turnout voters for the midterms – their voters, meaning Democrats and Democrat-leaners. Or anyone receiving federal government handouts. This is illegal – or just skirts the law. The Democrats did practically the same thing in 2020 as part of a comprehensive campaign to steal the presidential election from Donald Trump.

Hemingway is author of the super analysis on the 2020 election theft, Rigged: How the Media, Big Tech, and the Democrats Seized Our Elections. If you’re interested in one very important aspect of how Democrats foisted Joe Biden on the nation, read Mollie’s book. And also see Dinesh D’Souza’s eye-opening 2000 Mules documentary, which lays out the old fashioned way Democrats swiped the 2020 presidential contests: ballot box stuffing.

Charges Hemingway in her June 23 analysis:

When President Biden ordered all 600 federal agencies to “expand citizens’ opportunities to register to vote and to obtain information about, and participate in, the electoral process” on March 7, 2021, Republican politicians, Constitutional scholars, and election integrity specialists began to worry exactly what was up his sleeve.

They had good reason. The 2020 election had suffered from widespread and coordinated efforts by Democrat activists and donors to run “Get Out The Vote” operations from inside state and local government election offices, predominantly in the Democrat-leaning areas of swing states. Independent researchers have shown the effect of this takeover of government election offices was extremely partisan and favored Democrats overwhelmingly.

The full article can be found at The Federalist. Follow this link to read it.

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