Category Archives: Flyover

Flyover

• Aug. 28, 2020
• 5 min read

President

Florida Polling: In the last ten Florida 2020 polls conducted from the July 17 – August 22 period, former Vice President Joe Biden’s aggregate average lead has dropped to 3.2 percentage points. In the previous ten surveys, conducted from June 8th through July 21st, the Biden lead in Florida averaged just under seven percentage points. Florida is a must-win state for the Trump campaign.

Swing State Polling: Two Democratic polling firms surveyed key presidential swing states over the same time period. While they both see former Vice President Joe Biden leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, their margins, at least in two of the states, were leagues apart.

Flyover

• Aug. 22, 2020
• 3 min read

President

Minnesota Polling: We are now seeing curious polling data coming from Minnesota, but with a consistent trend. In late July, former Vice President Joe Biden was enjoying huge polling leads over President Trump. One survey, from Public Policy Polling (7/22-23; 1,218 MN voters) posted Mr. Biden to a ten-point, 52-42%, advantage. Now, however, the Minnesota race is brandishing much different numbers.

Just before the state’s August 11th primary election, Emerson College conducted a statewide survey (8/8-10; 733 MN likely general election voters) and found Mr. Biden’s lead dropping to only two points, 51-49%, in a poll where respondents were pushed to make a choice between the pair of candidates. Now, the Trafalgar Group, the only pollster to correctly predict Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at the end of the 2016 election, finds the two candidates locked in a dead heat. Their most recent survey (8/15-18; 1,141 MN likely voters) sees the two men battling into a 47-47% tie. Since Hillary Clinton only won here in 2016 with a 1.5 percent margin, Minnesota is a state to watch as the presidential campaign hits its full stride.

Flyover

• Aug. 7, 2020
• 3 min read

Senate

Iowa: After five consecutive Iowa statewide post-primary surveys found Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield edging Sen. Joni Ernst (R) by 2-3 percentage points, the new Monmouth University poll (7/30-8/3; 401 IA likely voters) shows the incumbent holding the same small lead, 48-45%. The Iowa race is part of the four-state Republican majority firewall that includes Alabama, Maine, and Montana. All four races are must-win GOP contests if the party is to hold their tenuous Senate majority.

Flyover

• June 20, 2020
• 1 min read

Focus: President

Joe Biden: The Associated Press is cited sources inside Democratic presidential nominee-designate Joe Biden’s campaign that the Vice-Presidential running mate list has been narrowed to six individuals.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Kamala Harris (D-CA), Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM), US Representative and former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings (D-FL), Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, and former UN Ambassador Susan Rice comprise Mr. Biden’s reported final list of potential running mates. Long ago, the former Vice President said he would choose a female running mate. Absent from the list are Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Georgia gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, who are eliminated. The campaign spokespeople indicate the choice will be made public on or slightly before August 1st.

New Hampshire: The Granite State’s St. Anselm University, which conducts political polling, just completed an online survey of 1,072 registered voters during the June 13-16 period. The results find former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 49-42%. This tracks in the same average range as Hillary Clinton recorded during the commensurate period in 2016. In the end, however, New Hampshire’s actual vote margin was one of the closest in the country, with Ms. Clinton carrying the state by only 2,736 votes.

Sunday, a look at key Senate and House contests. Join us!