Michigan: After being quiet most of the presidential election cycle, the Trafalgar Group, the only pollster to correctly project the Great Lakes states in the 2016 election, released new data for Michigan, and again they are cutting against the polling grain. According to their latest political research study (6/16-18; 1,101 MI likely voters), Trafalgar projects former Vice President Joe Biden to hold only a one-point 46-45% lead over President Trump, which is almost identical to Change Research’s (6/12-14; 353 MI likely voters) 47-45% published polling margin.
Arizona: The Civiqs polling organization, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections website (6/13-15; 1,368 AZ previously selected respondents from a larger sampling pool; online), again finds retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) holding a substantial lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R).The numbers break 51-42% in Kelly’s favor, which is actually a slight improvement for McSally. This compares to the poll’s 49-45% split for Joe Biden over President Trump, which is a more reasonable spread as compared to some recent surveys of the Arizona electorate.
Every weekend, Flyover will deep dive the critical races for the presidency and Congress. Make sure to join us regularly!
Colorado: There had been legal maneuverings and challenges to the state signature requirements, but the Colorado Democratic Senate ballot is now down to two contenders to earn the right to oppose Sen. Cory Gardner (R), in the June 30th primary: former Gov. John Hickenlooper and ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. With the courts finally making definitive rulings, the ballot is set.